13.10.04

Dossier Oil

Lately, my favorite subject is OIL. I have been writing and reading much about oil issues. I think It depends a lot on the current war for oil resources that has begun since 2000 with the Bush's and Cheney's entry into White House.
Cheney is today most informed and the most influential person on Earth, he said many times how severe consequences could be if world runs out of oil very fast which is now the case ( demand for oil is booming , and only China's economic slowdown could bring some relief)
Let me quote Cheney's speech to the International Petroleum Institute in London in late 1999:

'By some estimates,' Cheney stated, 'there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.' Cheney ended on an alarming note: 'That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.'


Peak oil theorist are delighted to quote these sentences. I think these theorists are right in a essence but wrong and naive about reality.

It's game, pure and simple said. Although, peak theorists are right that proven world reserves and the dynamic of extracting new oil is lesser than general public is aware ( Royal Shell corrected their reserves estimates down this summer ). What would happen if there's correct accounting of underground and above-ground oil ?
Crash, and seriouse economic reset. It's just a game, and nobody expects it'll happen. That's not even option because it would set up prices at correct value having in mind supply and demand, and the realistic price of oil at current situation would be at about 182 dollars for a barrel.

Financial wizards are starting to wake up to this reality and world's ( foxy ) hedge funds were buying oil futures contracts like crazy for about a year. Oil costs today 80 % more than at the beginning of this year.
The prices of oil will probably break 60 $ for barell this winter but will come down next year although not under 40 $. But nobody knows this things for sure.

Around the world still echoes BBC report from the conference in Berlin this summer.

How will you pay to run your car? How will you get the children to school? How will you heat your house? How much will transported food go up in price?
How will we pay for plastics, metals, rubber, cheap flights, Simpson's DVDs, 3G phones and everlasting economic growth?
The basic answer is, we won't.


Their reporter painted very gloomy picture of the world addicted to the economic growth and western lifestyle as we know it, and with the expections of the new technogies to change the world for better, who is suddenly challenged with high energy costs.
But seems that an old ingredient of economic prosperity will at least for the moment sometime in the future slow down these dreams.

Although I have not finished thoughts on this subject I will stop. Too long article.

No comments: