Friday, 15 October 2004

Bush's edge

Today, Croatian daily, Jutarnji list, in their foreign politics section concluded " Kerry won all three debates ".
So what ?

I still don't believe Kerry is winning. This latest Reuters/Zogby poll says the same.
The wishes are not the reality, unfortunatly !
In my humble opinion , I think that undecided voters are the key for Bushs victory along with the results in those swing states. The economy is equally important but as US consumer data shows it' not used in debate effectively, and democrats didn't played that well.

Undecided voters are more inclined to vote for Bush. The republicans are more supportive of their candidate as the poll shows ( 89 % of them ) , and the democrats are not so strong behind Kerry ( 79 % of them ).
In this historical voting for US ( and the world I belive ) weights security fear of world wide terorrism that could be, in this post 9-11 world, decisive for the candidate who shows streght in those issues ( although Bush didn't use it 100 % )

Many are aware that Kerry can't pull US substantialy out of global war the Bush administration started. Many are aware , in case Kerry wins, that the foreign politics will be only more sophisticated and not so agressive in cases like building alliances. But, the war goes on.

In case Bush wins, there will be unstopable plans for their ''War on terrorism '' fought on their terms.
Better said, the world will be place of action and reaction to these facts ;))

1 comment:

Dragan said...

Latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup gave Bush 52, Kerry 44 and 1 Nader among likely voters (B 49, K 46, N 1 among likely voters). It is too early to make much out of it and various polls give different result, but if there is any trend it favours Bush at this moment, debates or no debates.

I think you are right when you say that undecided voters are going to give Bush victory.

Whoever hasn't made up his/her mind to this point is either going to stay at home or play it safe by voting for option that represent familiarity and security.